Roy Spencer's Articles

Gimme Three Steps Toward the Renewable Energy Door

A TV meteorologist named Greg Fishel (WRAL, Raleigh, NC) posted an article yesterday on their WRAL Weathercenter Blog entitled Choose science, stewardship in understanding climate change. In the blog post Mr. Fishel claims — I hope I am not putting words in his mouth — to have finally accepted human-caused climate change, and therefore encourages […]

South Carolina Flooding is NOT a 1 in 1,000 Year Event

There is no question that the flooding in South Carolina is exceptional, even historic. But a once on 1,000 year event? Sorry, but there is no way to determine that…there are simply not enough rainfall statistics over a long enough period of time to establish such a claim. But we do have information on previous […]

Satellite Reveals Biblical Mideast Duststorm

The dust storm currently impacting the Middle East started over northern Syria two days ago, and has spread south and westward. I don’t recall one this extensive in this area during the modern satellite era. The following color imagery from the NASA MODIS instrument reveals the daily progression of the storm, and just how large […]

Summer Snow to Greet Obama on Alaska Climate Trip

When President Obama visits Alaska this week to campaign for a new international agreement to fight global warming climate change, Alaska will be experiencing colder than normal weather and forecast summer snows, as seen in this graphic of forecast total snowfall by Friday: Besides this latest example of the Gore Effect, the dirty little […]

New Evidence Regarding Tropical Water Vapor Feedback, Lindzen’s Iris Effect, and the Missing Hotspot

As part of a DOE grant we are testing climate models against satellite observations, particularly regarding the missing “hotspot” in the tropics, that is, the expected region of enhanced warming in the tropical mid- and upper troposphere as the surface warms. Since 1979 (the satellite period of record), it appears that warming in those upper […]

Ice Amazingly Persists in Hudson and James Bay

While the world frets over global warming, sea ice amazingly persists as far south as James Bay in Canada–not much farther north than Maine–as seen in this NASA color satellite image of swirling ice patterns from yesterday, August 8, 2015 (click for full size): Two weeks ago it was reported that the worst mid-summer ice […]

UAH V6.0 Global Temperature Update for July 2015: +0.18 C

NOTE: This is the fourth monthly update with our new Version 6.0 dataset. Differences versus the old Version 5.6 dataset are discussed here. The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for July, 2015 is +0.18 deg. C, down considerably from the June, 2015 value of +0.33 deg. C (click for full size […]

15 Years of CERES Versus Surface Temperature: Climate Sensitivity = 1.3 deg. C

The NASA CERES project has updated their EBAF-TOA Edition 2.8 radiative flux dataset through March of 2015, which now extends the global CERES record to just over 15 years (since March 2000, starting with NASA’s Terra satellite). This allows us to get an update of how the radiative budget of the Earth responds to surface […]

New Pause-Busting Temperature Dataset Implies Only 1.5 C Climate Sensitivity

Amid all of the debate over whether the global warming pause/hiatus exists or not, I’d like to bring people back to a central issue: Even if it has warmed in the last 15 years, the rate of surface warming (and deep-ocean warming) we have seen in the last 50 years still implies low climate sensitivity. […]

Revised UAH Global Temperature Update for June 2015: +0.33 deg. C.

We discovered there were several days during June when communication problems prevented the transfer of some of the raw satellite data to our computer. This is an update of the June 2015 numbers with the missing satellite data included. The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2015 is +0.33 deg. […]

UAH V6.0 Global Temperature Update for June, 2015: +0.31 deg. C

NOTE: This is the third monthly update with our new Version 6.0 dataset. Differences versus the old Version 5.6 dataset are discussed here. The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2015 is +0.31 deg. C, up a little from the May, 2015 value of +0.27 deg. C (click for full […]

2015 Will Be Record Warm in Surface Temperatures…But Still Below Model Forecasts

With 5/12 (41.7%) of the votes counted, John Christy and I are now prepared to call 2015 as the winner of the Warmest Year in the Thermometer Record election. The latest exit polling of El Nino forecasts suggests an unusually hot turnout from the East Pacific region this year, which is why we are calling […]

What Causes the Greenhouse Effect?

I’ve had a request to (once again) go through an explanation of the (poorly-named) Greenhouse Effect (GHE). Hopefully there is something which follows that will help you understand this complex subject. The greenhouse effect usually refers to a net increase in the Earth’s surface temperature due to the fact that the atmosphere both absorbs and […]

Greenpeace? Or Greendeceit?

I just about made it out of Heartland’s 10th International Conference on Climate Change, now winding down near Capitol Hill, without having to deal with one of the 25 media outlets registered there known to be antagonistic to the view that global warming is neither all human-caused nor dangerous. Then, a sharply dressed, very young […]

Nearly 3,500 Days Since Major Hurricane Strike… Despite Record High CO2

As Subtropical Storm Ana churns off the southeast U.S. coast, the global atmosphere has exceeded 400 ppm carbon dioxide content for the first time in…well…who knows? And also on tap for this month (May 25th, Memorial Day) is another milestone: 3,500 days since the last time a major hurricane (Cat 3 or stronger) struck the […]

Mystery Climate Index #2 Explanation

Yesterday I presented this time series of climate data and asked if anyone could determine any physical causes based upon it’s character: I like the example because it shows realistic variability compared to, say, global average temperature variations. I created it with a very simple function that actually has some basis in how the real […]

Magical Mystery Climate Index #2

A little over a year ago I posted a climate riddle of sorts: a time series that showed warming, then a “pause”, then warming again, etc. The point of the exercise was to demonstrate how a natural climate cycle sumperimposed upon a linear warming trend can cause what we have seen in global temperatures. I […]

UAH V6.0 Global Temperature Update for April, 2015: +0.07 deg. C

NOTE: This is the first montly update with our new Version 6.0 dataset. Differences versus the old Version 5.6 dataset are discussed here. The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2015 is +0.07 deg. C, down a little from the March, 2015 value of +0.14 deg. C (click for full […]

Version 6.0 of the UAH Temperature Dataset Released: New LT Trend = +0.11 C/decade

Abstract Version 6 of the UAH MSU/AMSU global satellite temperature dataset is by far the most extensive revision of the procedures and computer code we have ever produced in over 25 years of global temperature monitoring. The two most significant changes from an end-user perspective are (1) a decrease in the global-average lower tropospheric (LT) […]

Has The Guardian “Rolling Stoned” Christy & Spencer?

That tireless ecological zealot over at The Guardian, Dana Nuccitelli, took the opportunity of our 25th anniversary of satellite-based global temperature monitoring to rip us a new one. Comparing John Christy and me to “scientists who disputed the links between smoking and cancer”, Dana once again demonstrates his dedication to the highest standards of journalism. […]

White House Declares April “Earth Month”

After Saturday night’s unprecedented success with Earth Hour, the White House announced today that, by Executive Order, April has been declared “Earth Month”, the next step in reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. For the month of April, U.S. residents and businesses are being required to turn off all electrical appliances and lights. A special […]

7 questions with John Christy and Roy Spencer: Climate change skeptics for 25 years

This article by Paul Gattis is found on the website at The silver anniversary of Roy Spencer’s career-defining moment arrived with no expectation in March. He didn’t realize it until someone mentioned it to him. For John Christy, he had no idea that a discovery announced in 1990 would not only still resonate […]

This is Your President’s Science Advisor

A President’s political appointees are chosen because their views support the President’s political leanings. This is to be expected. One might expect the Science Advisor position to be more politics-free, but not these days. The President’s choice of John Holdren, previously a professor at Berkley, to be his science advisor tells us something about his […]

Atlas Shrugged, Net Neutraility, and Government Controlled Science

There’s an amazing article by Robert Tracinski at which draws powerful parallels between Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged and what we are seeing today with increasing government regulation. It uses the latest Net Neutrality push and government attempts to shut down private funding of climate science as just the latest examples of a trend which […]

What if Boston Had Record Low Snowfall?

By yesterday evening, Boston officially received its greatest seasonal snowfall on record, 108.6 inches. The popular meme is that this is just one more example of human-caused climate change. But unless you are in elementary school, or just don’t pay attention to what scientists or Al Gore say, you will remember when global warming was […]

Even Though Warming Has Stopped, it Keeps Getting Worse?

I was updating a U.S. Corn Belt summer temperature and precipitation dataset from the NCDC website, and all of a sudden the no-warming-trend-since-1900 turned into a significant warming trend. As can be seen in the following chart, the largest adjustments were to earlier years in the dataset, which were made colder. The change in the […]

The ‘Skeptical Seven’ Witch Hunt is Just the Beginning

Congressman Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ) has sent letters to universities requesting information on the sources of financial support of seven climate researchers. A few of these might well have some portion of their funding come from energy companies, I don’t know. The implication, of course, is that research money from fossil fuel companies to any skeptics […]

What to call a NYT reporter of climate science?

The title of Justin Gillis’ recent NYT article is an excellent tip-off of how bad environmental reporting has gotten: What to Call a Doubter of Climate Change? Now, as a skeptical PhD climate scientist who has been working and publishing in the climate field for over a quarter century, I can tell you I don’t […]

Winters in Boston Becoming Drier

Much has been said in recent weeks about how bigger snowstorms in Boston are (supposedly) just what climate models have predicted. “Global warming” is putting more water vapor into the air, leading to more “fuel” for winter storms and more winter precipitation. While this general trend is seen in climate models for global average conditions […]

Northeast Snowstorms & Atlantic Water Vapor: No Connection in Last 27 Years

One of the theories of how snowstorms can be made worse is that warming oceans provide more moisture for fuel. While the theory sounds logical and even attractive, there are many ingredients that go into snowstorm formation. There has to be a synoptic scale disturbance feeding off the temperature contrast between the land and ocean, […]

“Peak Food”? No, the Average Person Has More Food to Eat

There’s an article in yesterday’s Independent entitled, Have we reached ‘peak food’? Shortages loom as global production rates slow. From reading the article, which is based upon a new report from two American universities and a German environmental institute, you would think that global food production is going down, while global population continues to rise. […]

New York City Gets a Taste of the Precautionary Principle

The New England blizzard that hit yesterday infamously missed its primary target: New York City. In fairness to the forecasters, there were as many weather model forecasts supporting an historic NYC storm as there were just a significant snowstorm. For areas well east of NYC, this snowstorm storm (dubbed “Juno” by The Weather Channel) was […]

The Little Blizzard that Couldn’t

It was going to be epic. The worst evah. Two feet of snow or more for New York City with blizzard conditions. But as I blogged about yesterday, the forecast uncertainty with this particular storm was unusually large. As early as yesterday noon it was looking like NYC might only get 6-12 inches. Yes, we […]

How the Climate System Works (for Dummies)

No, I’m not talking about how the climate system has helped dummies make money off it. I’m taking the occasion of continued pestering by our Aussie friend Doug Cotton, and questions I still get about his views, to go over the basics. The atmosphere is complex enough that, from time-to-time, I try to explain the […]

2014 as the Mildest Year: Why You are Being Misled on Global Temperatures

OR: Why I Should Have Been an Engineer Rather than a Climate Scientist I’ve been inundated with requests this past week to comment on the NOAA and NASA reports that 2014 was the “hottest” year on record. Since I was busy with a Japan space agency meeting in Tokyo, it has been difficult for me […]

Why Do Different Satellite Datasets Produce Different Global Temperature Trends?

I thought it would be useful to again outline the basic reasons why different satellite global temperature datasets (say, UAH and RSS) produce somewhat different temperature trends. They all stem from the fact that there is not a single satellite which has been operating continuously, in a stable orbit, measuring a constant layer of the […]

Top 10 Climate Discoveries of 2014

Top 10 lists are popular this time of year, so I gave in to the peer pressure. Here’s my Top 10 list of totally true climate stories of 2014. Kind of like that movie “Fargo”, which was not “based on a true story”, but was a totally “true story”. 10. Weather did not even occur […]

Storms are Normal: The Nuclear Weapons Equivalency

One of the popular (but incorrect) memes of the global warming movement is that storminess is getting worse. While attractive on an emotional level, there is little to no evidence that supports the meme. Whether it be tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, droughts, or any other class of weather event, there is simply no convincing evidence that […]

2014 a Record Warm Year? Probably Not.

As continual fiddling with the global surface thermometer data leads to an ever-warmer present and an ever-cooler past, many of us are increasingly skeptical that beating a previous “warmest” year by hundredths of a degree has any real-world meaning. Yet, the current UN climate meeting in Lima, Peru, is setting the stage for some very […]

Is Global Warming Causing More Snowstorms?

It has become axiomatic (and fashionable) that any change we see in nature is caused by global warming climate change. Global warming was going to make snow a thing of the past. Until someone looked out the window and decided global warming causes more snow. The epic Buffalo, NY storm this week was still in […]

A Busted El Nino and the New Weather Norm

With the hopes of an El Nino fading (now reduced to a 58% probability), and what could be another early start to an unusually cold and snowy winter, it is useful to take a step back and examine why some of us have been harping for years on what really controls North American climate variations […]

Do Satellite Temperature Trends Have a Spurious Cooling from Clouds?

The validity of the satellite record of global temperature is sometimes questioned; especially since it shows only about 50% of the warming trend as do surface thermometers over the 36+ year period of satellite record. The satellite measurements are based upon thermal microwave emissions by oxygen in the atmosphere. But like any remote sensing technique, […]

Why 2014 Won’t Be the Warmest Year on Record

Much is being made of the “global” surface thermometer data, which three-quarters the way through 2014 is now suggesting the global average this year will be the warmest in the modern instrumental record. I claim 2014 won’t be the warmest global-average year on record. ..if for no other reason than this: thermometers cannot measure global […]

Climate Change: A Meaningless Artifact of Technology?

  Climate change, to the extent that such a thing exists, only matters if it is significant enough to affect humans or ecosystems. And even if it does exist, there is no way to know how much is natural versus human-induced. Contrary to popular belief, there are no “fingerprints” of anthropogenic global warming. There is […]

So, Fewer Hurricane Strikes are Bad, Too?

The Capital Weather Gang’s Jason Samenow has written that the record long hurricane drought is leading to a sense of complacency in a growing south Florida population. New building in hurricane-prone areas is at greater risk as unsuspecting residents are lulled into a false sense of security. But I would argue that, unless 9 year […]

NASA: The Deep Ocean Hasn’t Warmed Since 2005 (but we’re all gonna die)

While still claiming that the results do not cast doubt on climate change, a new NASA press release says that the global oceans below 2,000 meters depth haven’t warmed since 2005. This is the period that we have had the deep oceans reasonably well sampled with thousands of globally-distributed Argo floats. The thing that annoys […]

Why Don’t More People Care About Global Warming?

Polls of voters consistently show that Americans place global warming (sometimes framed more generally as environmental concerns) at or near the bottom of their list of priorities. Most of the top concerns are almost always directly related to the economy. Yet, there were approximately 125,000 people who turned out for the People’s Climate March in […]

3,264 Days Without a Major Hurricane Strike

Who would have predicted it? As of today (October 1) it’s been nearly 9 years since a major hurricane (Cat 3 or greater) has struck the U.S., the last being Wilma in October, 2005. Remember the 2005 hurricane season? Landfalling hurricanes right and left. Katrina! This was going to be the new normal in a […]

Are Record Ocean Surface Temperatures Due to Record Low Wind Speeds?

The fortuitous revelation of record warm sea surface temperatures in August, only days before Climate Summit 2014, begs the question — why? Why were SSTs so warm? (Not “Why announce it just before Leonardo DiCaprio’s coronation?”) As readers here know, I follow the “ocean products” produced by RSS from the SSM/I and SSMIS satellite sensors, […]

10 Ways To Tell Tuesday’s UN Climate Summit Isn’t About Climate

Next Tuesday’s UN climate conference in NYC (called Climate Summit 2014) is for politicians, celebrities, and rent seekers. It’s not about climate science, nor Saving the Earth from “carbon emissions” of fossil fuels. Here are ten ways to tell the United Nations really isn’t interested in climate per se. Some of us suspected over 20 […]

What if the Global Warming “Pause” was “Fast Forward” Instead?

I’d like to take you through a little thought experiment. We all know that global warming has been on hiatus – set on pause – however you like to characterize the lack of significant warming, for over 15 years. Depending on how you do the statistics, the vast majority of the climate models used to […]

Water Vapor Feedback and the Global Warming Pause

Global warming is the predicted result of increasing atmospheric CO2 causing a very small (~1-2%) decrease in the rate at which the Earth cools to outer space though infrared radiation. And the since temperature change of anything is always the result of net gains and losses of energy, a decrease in energy lost leads to […]

September Snow in Seven States over Seven Days

Sunday update: make that eight states. Looks like September snows — not even mountain snows — over the northern tier of states spreading eastward from Montana and North Dakota starting Tuesday night. The latest GFS model total snow accumulation by next Saturday shows snow for Montana, Wyoming (mountains only), the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and […]

UAH Global Temperature Update for August 2014: +0.20 deg. C

The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for August, 2014 is +0.20 deg. C, down from July’s value of +0.31 deg. C: The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 20 months are: YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS 2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.386 […]

How Much of Atmospheric CO2 Increase is Natural?

I frequently get asked the question, if natural CO2 emissions are about 20 times what anthropogenic emissions are, how do we know that all of the atmospheric CO2 increase is due to human activities? One answer often given (and the one I often use, too) is that since we emit twice as much as is […]

Wikipedia Page on Propaganda Techniques Uses 97% Meme

If 99 billion mouths agree, shouldn’t you? Oh, this is too rich. I’ve blogged before on how global warming alarmists use all of the standard propaganda techniques to convince the not very super-sophisticated masses, using Al Gore’s own words. Well, it turns out the “97% of all scientists agree” meme is being used as an […]

Climate Polling Results Lead to Weird Press Coverage

A recent polling of Americans on their attitudes about how much scientists know (or claim to know) about global warming, as well as what should be done about it, has led to very different treatments in the press, specifically in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, which commissioned the poll. The PG’s editorial take on the poll is […]

How deep ocean warming can “bypass the surface”

There seems to be continuing confusion regarding how the deep ocean can warm without an observable temperature increase at the ocean surface. I’m not talking about a change in the geothermal heat flux at the bottom of the ocean. And I’m not claiming Kevin Trenberth is right that this has actually happened in recent years. […]

EPA Admits to Senate that CO2 Regs Not About Pollution Control

I usually don’t comment on what transpires in congressional hearings. But this is too good to pass up. On Wednesday, before the Senate EPW Committee, EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy had this priceless quote regarding the EPA’s proposed carbon dioxide regulations (italics added): “And the great thing about this proposal is it really is an investment […]

June 2014 Update of SSM/I Ocean Products

The SSM/I and SSMIS series of microwave imagers, operating since July 1987, provide global oceanic measurements of total vertically integrated water vapor, cloud water, rain rate, and surface wind speed. These are useful for studying how the maritime atmosphere varies due to El Nino and La Nina, as well as provides ~27 year trends for […]

Dr. Spencer’s ICCC9 Presentations

Following my detour through California after attending the 9th International Conference on Climate Change in Las Vegas, I’m finally back home to find low temperatures in the 50s in Alabama (was Al Gore in town?). Here are the two presentations I gave. The first presentation briefly summarized our published paper on the role of El […]

Dr. Roy Spencer’s Keynote Speech at #ICCC9

Dr. Spencer asks the question: What do we really know about Global Warming? This is from Wednesday morning July 9th. From Watts Up With That

Lake Superior Water Level Sees Fastest Rise in 98 Years

As a result of unusually heavy precipitation, the water level in Lake Superior has increased rapidly in the last year, by about 14 inches (based upon 3 month averages). This rate of rise is the fastest 12-month increase ending in April-May-June average levels since 1916, and the 2nd fastest since records began in 1860 (154 […]

I’ll see your 97 percent, and raise you 3 percent

The meme that 97% of climate scientists believe global warming is, well, apparently whatever you want them to believe, is getting really annoying. John Kerry is so clueless about this issue it’s downright embarrassing. Does he really think we can do something that will measurably affect global temperatures without killing millions of poor people in […]

The Bullying of Bengtsson and the Coming Climate Disruption Hypocalypse

Lennart Bengtsson being bullied by colleagues is only the latest example of bad behavior by climate scientists who have made a deal with the devil. They have exchanged their scientific souls for research grants, prestige, and easy access to scientific journals to publish their papers. I predict history will not treat them kindly, and the […]

Climate Change Mass Hysteria Grips the U.S.

WASHINGTON (AP) In what many experts are calling one of the most serious cases of mass hysteria in modern times, the U.S. government today released its National Climate Assessment, a sobering 840 page summary of a wide variety of normal climate occurrences which are leading to physical symptoms such as adolescent psychiatric problems, great wailing, […]

Top Ten Good Skeptical Arguments

As suggested by a friend, I’m following up my Top Ten bad global warming arguments list with a Top Ten good arguments list. These are in no particular order, and I might have missed something important. These ten were just off the top of my head….there’s no telling what might be lingering deeper in my […]

Skeptical Arguments that Don’t Hold Water

There are some very good arguments for being skeptical of global warming predictions. But the proliferation of bad arguments is becoming almost dizzying. I understand and appreciate that many of the things we think we know in science end up being wrong. I get that. But some of the alternative explanations I’m seeing border on […]

Global Warming is Destroying April Fools Day

For the last few days I’ve been trying to think of some crazy, almost-believable angle to illustrate the absurdity of the current global warming movement. Post it on April 1st, and say “Ha! Fooled ya! The warmists didn’t really say that…but I made you think they did!” Alas, the global warming alarmists have already used […]

2nd Coldest U.S. Winter in 35 Years

The primary winter months of December, January, and February averaged over the contiguous 48 United States were the 2rd coldest winter in the last 35 years. The average temperature of 32.2 deg. F was barely edged out by the slightly colder winter (32.0 deg. F) of 2009-2010 (click for large version): The analysis is based […]

95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong

I’m seeing a lot of wrangling over the recent (15+ year) pause in global average warming…when did it start, is it a full pause, shouldn’t we be taking the longer view, etc. These are all interesting exercises, but they miss the most important point: the climate models that governments base policy decisions on have failed […]

Spencer Discusses Extreme Weather & Typhoons

Institute Director Roy Spencer discusses the typhoon in the Philippines, links to climate change, and whether skeptical scientists deserve to be heard on national news reports. It’s a provocative conversation on CNN’s Piers Morgan show.

New paper: El Nino warming reduces climate sensitivity to 1.3 deg. C

Our new paper has finally appeared in Asia Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Science (APJAS).  Entitled “The Role of ENSO in Global Ocean Temperature Changes during 1955-2011 Simulated with a 1D Climate Model“, we use a time-dependent forcing-feedback model of global average ocean temperature as a function of depth to explain the Levitus record ocean temperature […]

The IPCC’s Magic Touch

Like a magician who uses misdirection to focus attention on what he appears to be doing and not on what he is actually doing, the just released Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) tries to shift attention from significant uncertainties by issuing a statement that it is extremely likely that warming since 1950 has been mainly caused by human activities. Indeed, it increases its probability estimate from 90% to 95%.

Dr. Roy W. Spencer’s Statement to the Environment and Public Works Committee of the United States Senate, July 18, 2013

Institute Director Dr. Roy Spencer testified before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on July 18, 2013.

Junk Science Week: Epic climate model failure

Nearby is a running graph of 5-year averages for the tropical tropospheric temperature, climate models versus observations. In all, 73 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are plotted against observations so that their respective 1979-2012 trend lines all intersect in 1979, which we believe is the most meaningful way to simultaneously plot the […]

Dr. Roy Spencer on Global Warming, ‘No one knows’

Institute Director Dr. Roy Spencer discussing climate change.  

Hottest year ever? Skeptics question revisions to climate data

2012 was a scorcher, but was it the warmest year ever? A report released this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) called it “the warmest year ever for the nation.” Experts agree that 2012 was a hot year for the planet. But it’s that report — and the agency itself — that’s […]

Our Chaotic Climate System

Over the last quarter century, mainstream climate science has changed dramatically, from a paradigm where climate changes naturally to one where climate forever remains the same unless humans meddle with it. The reasons for this paradigm shift are clearly not based on science. Sure, you can always analyze some dataset in such a way that […]

UAH V5.5 Global Temp. Update for Sept. 2012: +0.34 deg. C

As discussed in my post from yesterday, the spurious warming in Aqua AMSU channel 5 has resulted in the need for revisions to the UAH global lower tropospheric temperature (LT) product. Rather than issuing an early release of Version 6, which has been in the works for about a year now, we decided to do something […]

Junk Science Week: Epic climate model failure

Nearby is a running graph of 5-year averages for the tropical tropospheric temperature, climate models versus observations. In all, 73 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are plotted against observations so that their respective 1979-2012 trend lines all intersect in 1979, which we believe is the most meaningful way to simultaneously plot the […]

UAH Global Temperature Update for April 2012: +0.30°C

The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly increased again in April, 2012, to +0.30°C., with warming in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres, but slightly cool conditions persisting in the tropics (click on the image for the full-size version): The corresponding April anomaly from RSS, using a common baseline period of 1981-2010, is considerably cooler at […]

Our Response to Recent Criticism of the UAH Satellite Temperatures

by John R. Christy and Roy W. Spencer University of Alabama in Huntsville A new paper by Stephen Po-Chedley and Quang Fu (2012) (hereafter PCF) was sent to us at the end of April 2012 in page-proof form as an article to appear soon in the Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. The topic of […]

New Evidence Our Record Warm March was Not from Global Warming

As part of my exploration of different surface temperature datasets, I’m examining the relationship between average U.S. temperatures and other weather variables in NOAA’s Integrated Surface Hourly (ISH) dataset. (I think I might have mistakenly called it “International” before, instead of “Integrated” Surface Hourly). Anyway , one of the things that popped out of my […]

USHCN Surface Temperatures, 1973-2012: Dramatic Warming Adjustments, Noisy Trends

Since NOAA encourages the use the USHCN station network as the official U.S. climate record, I have analyzed the average [(Tmax+Tmin)/2] USHCN version 2 dataset in the same way I analyzed the CRUTem3 and International Surface Hourly (ISH) data. The main conclusions are: 1) The linear warming trend during 1973-2012 is greatest in USHCN (+0.245 […]

Could Arctic Sea Ice Decline be Caused by the Arctic Oscillation?

While the IPCC claims that recent Arctic sea ice declines are the result of human-caused warming, there is also convincing observational evidence that natural cycles in atmospheric circulation patterns might also be involved. And unless we know how much of the decline is natural, I maintain we cannot know how much is human-caused. In 2002, […]

What Causes the Large Swings in Global Satellite Temperatures?

One of the most frequent questions I get pertains to the large amount of variability seen in the daily global-average temperature variations we make available on the Discover website. From Aqua AMSU ch. 5, these temperatures can undergo wide swings every few weeks, leading to e-mail questions like, Is the satellite broken? Unusually good examples […]

UAH Global Temperature Update for January 2012: -0.09 deg. C

The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for January, 2012 took a precipitous plunge, not totally unexpected for a La Nina January (click on the image for the full-size version): The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive […]

Daubert and the Admissibility of Climate Models as Evidence in a Court of Law

Institute Director Dr. Roy Spencer and attorney Brooks Harlow authored an article in Energy Law Journal entitled: An Inconvenient Burden of Proof? CO2 Nuisance Plaintiffs Will Face Challenges in Meeting the Daubert Standard. Dr. Spencer comments on the article here. The article synopsis follows: Litigation regarding “climate change” allegedly caused by emissions of “greenhouse gases” […]

Addressing Criticisms of the UAH Temperature Dataset at 1/3 Century

The UAH satellite-based global temperature dataset has reached 1/3 of a century in length, a milestone we marked with a press release in the last week (e.g. covered here). As a result of that press release, a Capital Weather Gang blog post by Andrew Freedman was dutifully dispatched as damage control, since we had inconveniently […]

Climate Science Money Trail Calls into Question Motive of Editor’s Resignation

As President Clinton famously once observed, politics is a contact sport. And the politics surrounding climate science is no exception. The latest example stems from the climate establishment’s reaction to a research paper by University of Alabama climatologist Roy Spencer published in the geography journal, Remote Sensing. (Dr. Spencer, who also happens to be on […]

Perry, Romney, and Climate Change Consensus in the Presidential Race

It’s the nature of media (and, perhaps, society in general) that it often works to build controversy where none exists. Few places is that more evident than political races. When Texas Governor Rick Perry official entered the presidential race last week, he made comments about climate change and the adequacy of the science. Candidate Mitt […]

UAH Global Temperature Update for Dec. 2011: +0.13 deg. C

The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for December, 2011 remained about the same November, +0.13 deg. C (click on the image for the full-size version): The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever. Here are […]

Climate Science Money Trail Calls into Question Motive of Editor’s Resignation

As President Clinton famously once observed, politics is a contact sport. And the politics surrounding climate science is no exception. The latest example stems from the climate establishment’s reaction to a research paper by University of Alabama climatologist Roy Spencer published in the geography journal, Remote Sensing. (Dr. Spencer, who also happens to be on […]

Indirect Solar Forcing of Climate by Galactic Cosmic Rays: An Observational Estimate

UPDATE (12:35 p.m. CDT 19 May 2011): revised corrections of CERES data for El Nino/La Nina effects. While I have been skeptical of Svensmark’s cosmic ray theory up until now, it looks like the evidence is becoming too strong for me to ignore. The following results will surely be controversial, and the reader should remember […]

Weak Warming of the Oceans 1955-2010 Implies Low Climate Sensitivity

UPDATE (1:20 pm. CDT 5/13/11): Since the issue of deep ocean warming (below 700 m depth) has been raised in the comments section, I have re-run the forcing-feedback model for the following two observations: 1) a net 50 year warming of 0.06 deg. C for the 0-2000 meter layer, and (2) a surface warming of […]

Dump the IPCC Process, It Cannot Be Fixed

In a recent opinion piece, Ross McKitrick has argued that the IPCC process needs to be fixed. He correctly points out that, “There is too much conflict of interest built into the report-writing process”. But I say the process cannot be fixed. DUMP the IPCC process. The reason why is because the IPCC process was […]

Is Manmade Global Warming Real and Dangerous?

On October 9, 2009, Fred Singer, Roy Spencer and Marc Morano participated in a Capitol Hill Briefing for Senate and House Staff: IS MANMADE GLOBAL WARMING REAL AND DANGEROUS? A Look at the Key Issues and Evidence Underlying Cap & Trade Legislation FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2009 12 Noon to 2 p.m. Room 116 Senate Dirksen […]

Some Convergence of Global Warming Estimates

In one of a trio of new global warming papers in Science, Mears & Wentz (2005) address what they consider to be a large source of uncertainty in our (University of Alabama in Huntsville, “UAH”) satellite estimate for global lower tropospheric (“LT”) temperature trends since 1979. The satellite measurements come from the Microwave Sounding Units […]

Sun-Climate and Cosmic Ray-Climate Resources on the Web

Solar+Cosmic Ray Data From this NOAA web, you can get most solar indices including sunspot number. The Wilcox Solar Observatory University Chicago Space Physics Data: including the cosmic-ray’s neutron count flux Want Solar Wind Data and Plots Go visit National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC) OMNIweb. Space Environment Monitor for GOES’s monitoring of various important […]

Solar Variability and Climate Change

The purpose of this article is to give you some details about the research which my colleagues (especially Sallie Baliunas and Eric Posmentier) and I have done in studying the controversial relationship between the Sun’s energy output and Earth?s temperature, in short, the sun-climate connection. Despite what you may have heard before about sun-climate studies, […]

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