Judith Curry: State of the Climate Debate

I have devoted 30 years to conducting research on a range of topics related to climate change, including climate of the Arctic, the role of clouds and aerosols in the climate system, and the climate dynamics of extreme weather events.  As President of Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) LLC, I have worked with decision-makers on climate impact assessments, assessing and developing meteorological hazard and climate adaptation strategies, and developing subseasonal climate forecasting strategies to support adaptive management.

For the past several years, I have been promoting dialogue across the full spectrum of beliefs and opinion on the climate debate through my blog, Climate Etc. (judithcurry.com).  I have learned about the complex reasons that intelligent and well-informed people disagree on the subject of climate change, as well as tactics used by both sides to try to gain a political advantage in the debate.  I have learned about the complexity of different decisions that depend, at least in part, on weather and climate information.  I have learned the importance of careful determination and conveyance of the uncertainty associated with a forecast, and the added challenges associated with predicting extreme events.  I have found that the worst prediction outcome is a prediction issued with a high level of confidence that turns out to be wrong; a close second is missing the possibility of an extreme event.

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