For more than a decade, malaria has held a prominent place in speculations on the impacts of global climate change. Mathematical models that “predict” increases in the geographic distribution of malaria vectors and the prevalence of the disease have received wide publicity. Efforts to put the issue into perspective are rarely quoted and have had little influence on the political debate. The model proposed by Frank C Tanser and colleagues in The Lancet and the accompanying Commentary by Simon Hales and Alistair Woodward are typically misleading examples.
This article appeared in The Lancet, Infectious Diseases Vol. 4, June 2004